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Do not think about the first year that is to share your thoughts on the economy, but that’s only the hands can not reach.

And then there is such an occasion. Well, still, reduced credit rating of the U.S. (the same bonds are transferable at all – but others have not been – economics textbooks / investment was referred to as risk-free asset), such agree, is not every day. And to be precise, this is the first in the history of U.S. Precedent. A good reason to still speak out. So….

Reducing the U.S. Credit rating has finally become a fact. And the first effects, namely, the collapse of the stock and commodity markets, we are seeing now. However, before you answer the question “what will happen next?” I would like first to analyze the significance of the event.

The fact that the ratio of U.S. Debt to GDP stands at close to 90%, and for some only the interest on the debt spent about 2.7% of GDP (which is, I want to see, almost 20% of the money coming from taxpayers) nothing new there for investors. In other words, the formal reduction of the U.S. Credit rating was only stating the already long-known fact to all, and has not introduced any new information. On this occasion can only say: “It’s time.”

Today a number of market participants began to talk about what one of the major consequences of downgrading U.S. Investors will lose a landmark, the so-called “standard risk-free asset,” and as a result, the market for some time come a period of uncertainty.

Can not quite agree with this point of view. Rather, the final ratio of professional participants of the U.S. Market as a benchmark, changed earlier, namely, at a time when market participants have found that U.S. Bonds are not absolute and may be subject to political bargaining. Therefore, the rating downgrade was only a confirmation of already existing beliefs.

If the reduction of the credit rating does not carry new information, then why are falling world stock indexes, including U.S. Stock indexes? And what is still waiting for us in the future?

To answer this question, let’s analyze the short, medium and long-term consequences of the event.

In my opinion, in the short run, U.S. Stock markets are waiting for the inevitable decline. The reason for this is the fact that the maximum size limits on investment in a country in pension and investment funds are often dependent on the country’s credit rating. Therefore, after the downgrade of the U.S., a significant number of funds have to be revised downwards weight of the country in their investment portfolios. It is with this and related sales are observed today in the U.S.. As for the reduction of the background markets in other countries (except, perhaps, the problem of the euro area), the fundamental prerequisite for reducing the no.

As for medium-and long-term perspective, we can say with confidence that we will have a global revision value from investors. Will come to the fore such objective indicators such as debt burden of the economy. As a result, there is a global flow of capital from developed economies, with their debts in developing countries, where the debt burden is incomparably lower. This flow will not be smooth, as if the markets of developed economies have gone smoothly for reduction, and developing markets – grew continuously. Rather, we expect the so-called period of high volatility, which we, by the way, we can observe today. Markets continue to synchronous motion, but the markets of developing economies will decline less on dips, and climbs to grow more, unlike the markets of developed economies. It is safe to say only that this process will take several months, perhaps even more than a year.

Thus, the emerging market economies with a low debt burden, which, incidentally, applies to Russia, only to win in this situation.

Speaking about the Russian market, many fear that as a result of lower oil prices we see the depreciation of the ruble and the Russian stock market drop. This scenario, in my opinion, unlikely.

Rather, in the short term, the commodity markets, as well as on the stock, there will be increased volatility associated with the fact that in this situation investors are looking for a “benchmark reliability.”

But turning to the more distant future, we can say that after declining credit rating and the U.S., as a consequence, lowering the limit of investment funds to invest in the economy, decrease the amount of funds allocated for the purchase of a new U.S. Government debt. Since public debt is denominated in U.S. Dollars, the most simple and painless solution is to issue new dollars to pay off existing debts. As a result, there will be an inflationary rise in prices on commodity markets, respectively, to talk about fundamentally sound fall in oil prices in this situation to occur. Rather, we will see continued growth in commodity prices.

Thus, Russia, despite its structural problems in the economy will be one of the winners as a result of a process of global redistribution of capital.